Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious)

Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17

Porejide estimated 30% on 2012-02-18
Porejide said “(In the US) ” on 2012-02-18
antsan estimated 40% on 2012-02-21
Grognor estimated 42% and said “people can be pretty gosh-darned resistant to change” on 2012-02-23
Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-02-23
torekp estimated 60% on 2012-02-24
Jayson Virissimo said ““completely”?” on 2012-02-24
PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2012-02-24
kallman estimated 80% and said “20 years is too few to make people entrust their lives in robot chauffeurs, no matter how viable the technology.” on 2012-02-28
gwern said “I’m going to assume this is USA only. if the third world is included, it will be a very long time before the whole world can afford expensive luxuries like robotic cars” on 2012-02-28
gwern estimated 65% and said “USA fleet turnover is 20+ years: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/vehicle-sales-fleet-turnover-ratio.html 20+2012=2032” on 2012-02-28
Anubhav said “As the second comment says: It’s about the US.” on 2012-02-28
RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “tech changes in areas which already work pretty well are slower than you think (see lightbulb). Cars work pretty well.” on 2012-03-02
RandomThinker estimated 75% and said “oops misread. predicting it’s not going to happen” on 2012-03-02
Pablo estimated 65% on 2012-10-01
Elithrion estimated 67% and said “Assuming we mean “owned” so we don’t have to account for autonomous potentially spending longer literally on the road.” on 2013-02-01
gwern said “where did Hanson say this?” on 2013-02-01
alanog estimated 75% on 2013-02-02
lavalamp estimated 65% on 2013-02-03
JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-02-04
Tuxedage estimated 75% on 2013-02-04
David estimated 85% on 2015-06-23
themusicgod1 estimated 55% on 2016-07-10
pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-12-15
Baeboo estimated 40% on 2018-12-15