HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-02-19
• Anubhav said “Looks like a throwaway joke to me. See http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7jd/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/5wg6” on 2012-02-19
• gwern estimated 15% and said “lots of throw-away jokes” on 2012-02-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-02-19
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017.” on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• qznc estimated 5% on 2014-07-14
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.