GJP: #1096 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-02-21
• gwern said “I have no idea how the sponsor plans to judge this. it already looks like a civil war to me!” on 2012-02-21
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-04-03.