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GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

  • gwern estimated 35% on 2012-02-21
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% and said “Why 1/3 chance? It’s scheduled to take place in over a year!” on 2012-03-01
  • gwern said “I didn’t see any mention of the scheduling in the news articles I looked at, and under a parliamentary system can’t they happen at any time?” on 2012-03-01
  • Laurent Bossavit said “The “additional info” of Q#1088 mentions the Aug 2013 date. WP concurs, for what it’s worth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Japanese_general_election” on 2012-03-01
  • Laurent Bossavit said “It’s possible that I’m missing something obvious or that’s been in the news, but my mental model of democracies is that elections are scheduled way in advance, even “early” ones.” on 2012-03-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.