GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-02-21
• torekp estimated 15% on 2012-02-24
• smijer estimated 1% on 2012-02-24
• modulus estimated 20% on 2012-02-24
• ahartell estimated 25% on 2012-02-25
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “They’re not North Koreans!” on 2012-03-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.