Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015.

Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

• papermachine estimated 10% on 2012-02-22
• papermachine said “For reference, it was cited in a recent paper as “(Hanson 2008, forthcoming)”.” on 2012-02-22
• Isaac said “I’m confused. This isn’t it? http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_Hanson-Yudkowsky_AI-Foom_Debate” on 2012-02-22
• Jayson Virissimo said “Did you mean “publish the AI FOOM debate in academic journal”?” on 2012-02-22
• papermachine said “Oh. Yeah. In an academic journal.” on 2012-02-22
• papermachine changed their prediction from “Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate before 2015.” on 2012-02-22
• gwern estimated 45% on 2012-02-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 50% on 2012-02-23
• wallowinmaya estimated 35% on 2012-02-23
• Danny_Hintze estimated 30% on 2012-03-22
• John Maxwell IV estimated 5% and said “They’ll publish it, but not in a peer-reviewed scientific journal… Unless it’s very substantially revised.” on 2013-01-24
• ChristianKl estimated 40% on 2013-01-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.