2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 45% on 2012-02-25
• Anubhav said “Related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5862 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5861 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5860 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5859” on 2012-02-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2012-02-25
• Grognor estimated 18% on 2012-02-25
• gwern said “need more specifics. lots of online education also include classroom meetups – for example, when researching MLIS programs, I found many of the online programs required you to show up every week or month to discuss your work” on 2012-02-25
• Anubhav said “^ Minor hacks to ensure commitment. I’d classify those as “online”. If you had to show up 3 or 4 times a day, though…” on 2012-02-26
• Anubhav said “3 or 4 times a week*” on 2012-02-26
• gwern estimated 15% and said “8 years for even countries which haven’t begun any transfer or are poor like china or african countries? no” on 2012-02-26
• Anubhav said “I wouldn’t expect poor countries to take any longer than other countries on average, seeing as their relative cost-savings would be greater.” on 2012-02-27
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% and said “If the majority of the education is delivered by a teacher who is not physically present, then this might happen; if it relies on 50% of the world rejecting existing educational-space norms, then no.” on 2012-02-27
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2012-02-27
• Laurent Bossavit said “What’s that value right now, and how are we measuring it?” on 2012-03-05
• Anubhav said “Current value is (number of homeschoolers + no of people in open universities)/(total number of students). ” on 2012-03-05
• RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “Agree with Ben. Teachers might not be present at B&M, but students will be.” on 2012-03-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-15
• Baeboo estimated 7% on 2018-12-15
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.