The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2012-03-04
• RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “Assad is winning. The opposition hasn’t even begun to fight to par yet. It’ll take a lot longer than expected.” on 2012-03-05
• modulus estimated 40% and said “Assad does seem to have some staying power, population density makes bombing harder (ethically) and so on.” on 2012-04-05
• gwern said “still around. marking wrong.” on 2012-12-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-27.