No military draft in the United States before 2020.

Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• komponisto estimated 95% on 2009-10-17
• komponisto estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
• DanArmak estimated 70% on 2009-10-17
• Cyan estimated 95% on 2009-10-17
• Larks estimated 98% on 2009-10-17
• othercriteria estimated 75% on 2009-10-17
• Robin Z. estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
• anonym estimated 97% on 2009-10-17
• Arenamontanus estimated 90% on 2009-10-19
• jshiga estimated 3% on 2009-10-19
• hakand   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-23.
• Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-25.
• Tobias estimated 95% on 2009-10-26
• evtujo   judged this prediction right on 2009-11-16.
• Jack   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-09-26
• Larks estimated 95% on 2010-09-29
• datadataeverywhere estimated 98% on 2010-09-30
• viveutvivas estimated 90% on 2013-05-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2013-05-15
• tylercurtis estimated 94% on 2013-05-15
• Tuxedage estimated 99% on 2013-05-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2013-05-16
• RandomThinker estimated 90% on 2013-05-16
• atroche estimated 99% on 2013-05-26
• holycow81 estimated 87% on 2013-05-27
• atroche estimated 90% on 2013-11-13
• from3004 estimated 80% and said “Adjusting for wishful thinking as well as drone advancements” on 2014-10-16
• rebellionkid estimated 99% on 2014-10-17
• btrettel estimated 95% on 2015-07-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 90% on 2016-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 97% on 2016-04-15
• Baeboo estimated 97% on 2017-11-25
• pranomostro estimated 90% on 2018-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2018-11-26
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• Pablo estimated 100% on 2019-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.