GJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-19.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2012-03-06
• William-Quixote estimated 50% on 2012-09-09
• Laurent Bossavit said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland” on 2012-09-19
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-19.