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GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees?

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

  • gwern estimated 35% on 2012-03-06
  • RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “Way lower.on 2012-03-06
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “Random: gotta keep in mind my ignorance of the issueson 2012-04-03
  • gwern estimated 35% and said “whupson 2012-04-03
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.