By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such).

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-03-06
• RandomThinker said “What’s an assassination market? Too broad. ” on 2012-03-06
• Anubhav said “lol….. no? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market” on 2012-03-06
• Serge estimated 5% and said “Don’t think so. Especially “known as such” part.” on 2012-03-06
• Anubhav said “My hunch is that any working assassination market would have to operate over the internet. So if it happens, it will be known.” on 2012-03-07
• gwern estimated 7% on 2012-03-07
• Jayson Virissimo said “You wouldn’t necessarily know. Depending on the target, you could use Intrade as an assassination market.” on 2012-03-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-03-07
• Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” and changed their prediction from “By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by an assassination market (and known as such).” on 2012-03-07
• Anubhav said “Good point, edited. ” on 2012-03-07
• lavalamp estimated 12% on 2012-03-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-10-10
• elephantower said “doesn’t look like there’s been a single such assassination” on 2020-01-01
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.