I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on 2012-03-09
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://jayquantified.blogspot.com/2012/03/n-back-experiment-analysis.html” on 2012-03-09
• army1987 said “Are you going to use the exact same test you used? If so, I’d expect such a result even from mere practice effect.” on 2012-03-10
• Jayson Virissimo said “Yes, I will use the same test. The > 5 points stipulation was to try and correct for the practice effect. Was that too small?” on 2012-03-10
• gwern said “no, seems reasonable enough” on 2012-03-10
• spqr0a1 estimated 50% on 2012-03-16
• Jayson Virissimo said “Haven’t noticed any cognitive changes yet, but I did have continuous nightmares on the night I started.” on 2012-03-20
• Jayson Virissimo said “I didn’t retest my IQ, so my the first conjunct is false.” on 2012-05-11
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-11.