>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month

Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-03-12
• gwern said “see http://hpmor.com/notes/chapter-78/” on 2012-03-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2012-03-12
• Grognor estimated 3% and said “base rate is nil” on 2012-03-12
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-03-12
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “not happening” on 2012-03-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-03-12
• papermachine estimated 0% on 2012-03-13
• spqr0a1 estimated 1% on 2012-03-16
• Danny_Hintze estimated 1% on 2012-03-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-03-22
• Michael Smith estimated 2% on 2012-03-23
• average_joe estimated 1% on 2012-03-29
• mat33 estimated 2% on 2012-04-01
• Ken estimated 0% on 2012-04-11
• gwern said “nothing announced in any chapter updates; marking wrong” on 2012-04-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-12.
• Michael Smith said “I imagine I would have heard something if we had just gotten a donation that large. I think it’s safe to say this didn’t happen.” on 2012-04-15
• gwern said “oh yes, during our MoR Hugo bet discussion on LW, eliezer specifically said no one donated that much” on 2012-04-15