HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• Grognor estimated 26% on 2012-03-16
• Grognor on 2012-03-16
• spqr0a1 estimated 55% on 2012-03-16
• gwern estimated 45% and said “last chapter drastically increased my confidence – quirrel implies dumbledore has cleared him & his past, but dumbledore is looking for voldemort’s spirit and not asking quirrel angry questions” on 2012-03-16
• Grognor said “by ‘last chapter’, gwern means 79” on 2012-03-17
• Leo estimated 5% and said “But Quirrell was Voldemort and kept his memories, so he still is. Two copies running around?” on 2012-03-19
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
• RobertLumley estimated 30% on 2012-03-29
• Grognor changed their prediction from “[HPMoR] Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/60bb )” on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 5% on 2012-04-29
• Osuniev estimated 40% on 2013-04-14
• William-Quixote estimated 15% on 2013-07-01
• Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-02” on 2013-07-05
• Smaug estimated 10% on 2013-11-23
• Smaug estimated 5% on 2013-12-15
• qznc estimated 30% on 2014-07-14
• Osuniev estimated 10% on 2014-08-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2014-09-23
• Emmanuel M. Smith estimated 40% on 2014-10-24
• from3004 estimated 40% on 2014-10-24
• Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry\potter\and\_the\methods\of\rationality/60bb )” on 2015-01-01
• gwern said “fixed formatting of title by removing URL” on 2015-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-20.