HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.

• Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-03-19
• Leo estimated 10% on 2012-03-19
• gwern estimated 7% and said “way too specific, and if humans could, one would expect it to be a judicial sentence – perhaps below azkaban” on 2012-03-19
• Anubhav said “Or for settling debts to Noble Houses. (That’s the context this idea’s floating around in.) The text does kinda sorta imply it, but I (and others who came up with/bought into it it) could just be reading too much into a few jokes.” on 2012-03-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-03-20
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-23.
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80.” on 2012-04-09