HP MoR: Conditional on prediction 6109, Hermione Granger will be transformed into a House-Elf before chapter 85.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-04-09

• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-03-19
• Anubhav said “Prediction 6109: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6109” on 2012-03-19
• Anubhav said “That would be worse than killing Aerith. I have absolutely no idea if Eliezer’s trying to write that kind of story.” on 2012-03-19
• gwern estimated 35% and said “if that’s revealed, the obvious reason will be to use on hermione, and given the future narration, it either will happen or will precipitate something irrevocable like an escape” on 2012-03-19
• Anubhav said “The obvious reason will be to propose to use on Hermione. The chances of it actually going through are slim, from a meta-perspective. (Unless Eliezer’s deliberately trying to shock.)” on 2012-03-20
• Anubhav withdrew the prediction on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “Conditional on prediction 6109, Hermione Granger will be transformed into a House-Elf before chapter 85.” on 2012-04-09