http://www.humanbirdwings.net/ will turn out to be a hoax.

Created by iemfi on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-22.

• iemfi estimated 15% on 2012-03-21
• Isaac estimated 95% on 2012-03-21
• gwern estimated 60% and said “might be hard to judge” on 2012-03-21
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-03-22
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OESwdRb48jM” on 2012-03-22
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-03-22.
• gwern said “or http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/birdman-admits-hoax/” on 2012-03-22
• Grognor said “that was fast” on 2012-03-22
• PseudonymousUser said “I would have assigned a decent probability to “epic rationality failure”, as in, he thought he was flying while being pulled like a kite by a truck” on 2012-03-22
• iemfi said “Damn, the technical aspects of it seemed to check out. Guess next time I should give more weight to the video pattern matching a hoax.” on 2012-03-22