HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure)

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 10% and said “But if this was reality and not a foreshadowed story, it’d be >90%.on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 5% and said “If the rule is, ‘Harry always does the one thing no one expects’, then here it is.on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 1% and said “I’d say ~20% except that this seems like it would make for weird pacing between the chapters.on 2012-03-23
  • anandjeyahar estimated 5% and said “Because on lesswrong thread Elliezer says he has a solution. on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
  • Grognor estimated 4% and said “just no wayon 2012-03-23
  • Grognor said “this prediction is that he doesn’t have a plan, right? not that he has a plan and it fails? oh blast it all, ambiguities and suchon 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “I think I’d go with has no plan at all, not has any of the other plans which happens to failon 2012-03-23
  • RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
  • lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2012-03-27
  • Grognor  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure)” on 2012-04-09

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