HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
- gwern estimated 30% on 2012-03-23
- gwern said “see http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63ib” on 2012-03-23
- Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-03-23
- Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Ach, no, forgot I’d updated downward.” on 2012-03-23
- HonoreDB estimated 60% on 2012-03-23
- beo_shaffer estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
- gryffinp estimated 25% on 2012-03-23
- Alsadius estimated 50% and said “By far the most plausible. ” on 2012-03-23
- Rejoyce estimated 20% and said “Again, they would have caught this a long time back, but in case they just overlooked it on accident…” on 2012-03-23
- quicklystarfish estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
- ArisKatsaris estimated 85% and said “Only solution sufficiently foreshadowed, and which doesn’t require more than 3 different things to happen just right.” on 2012-03-23
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2012-03-23
- HonoreDB said “Before I saw this idea, I had already gotten the strong impression that the intended solution involved Lucius Malfoy, the Wizengamot, and the laws of magical Britain. If EY didn’t want to use it, I think he would have ruled it out in 79.” on 2012-03-23
- Isaac estimated 60% on 2012-03-23
- Grognor estimated 24% and said “harry/eliezer is far more creative than me; could be any number of things that aren’t this particular solution” on 2012-03-23
- Porejide estimated 35% on 2012-03-24
- JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2012-03-25
- roshni estimated 20% on 2012-03-26
- RobertLumley estimated 55% on 2012-03-26
- slackson estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
- lavalamp estimated 30% and said “I think Harry already blew his chance at negotiation.” on 2012-03-26
- gimpf estimated 10% on 2012-03-27
- Unnamed estimated 60% and said “Calling in debts for killing Voldemort is the only option I’ve seen that really makes sense, and this is the most plausible version of it.” on 2012-03-27
- Grognor judged this prediction right on 2012-03-28.
- gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser” on 2012-04-09