HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63j5” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 47% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 20% and said “Subset of the “Lucius imperius debt” theory(p=0.5). Unlikely to be given much narrative weight if it happens, more likely mentioned in passing. ” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• Porejide estimated 25% on 2012-03-24
• gwern said “alsadius, strictly speaking it might not be a subset: it could be the debt is too weak to get a House’s lord to forgive a life-debt, but strong enough to compel the others to vote” on 2012-03-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-03-25
• lavalamp estimated 35% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2012-03-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• Alsadius said “Granted gwern, but I couldn’t imagine him using the trick on random NPCs and not on his primary antagonist. It’s not a logical subset, but I think it is a literary subset. ” on 2012-03-28
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members” on 2012-04-09