HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63j5on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 47% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 20% and said “Subset of the “Lucius imperius debt” theory(p=0.5). Unlikely to be given much narrative weight if it happens, more likely mentioned in passing. on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
  • Porejide estimated 25% on 2012-03-24
  • gwern said “alsadius, strictly speaking it might not be a subset: it could be the debt is too weak to get a House’s lord to forgive a life-debt, but strong enough to compel the others to voteon 2012-03-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-03-25
  • lavalamp estimated 35% on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 1% on 2012-03-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • Alsadius said “Granted gwern, but I couldn’t imagine him using the trick on random NPCs and not on his primary antagonist. It’s not a logical subset, but I think it is a literary subset. on 2012-03-28
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members” on 2012-04-09

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