HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63hr” on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63hr” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 40% and said “s/into/in to” on 2012-03-23
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself into Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom” on 2012-03-23
• ZrCa estimated 70% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 6% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 30% and said “Yeah. Harry cares for Hermione more than Dumbledore, I think.” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 50% on 2012-03-23
• Grognor estimated 25% on 2012-03-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2012-03-25
• roshni estimated 60% on 2012-03-26
• RobertLumley estimated 15% on 2012-03-26
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 5% and said “How will he make him to do that? From Dumbledore P.O.V. this does not work out.” on 2012-03-27
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern said ““But… it was so artistically done.” :(” on 2012-03-28
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom” on 2012-04-09