HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “if Eliezer goes this way, I will be very disappointed.” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 5% and said “I still think setting fire to his hair and running in circles, screaming, would be a better solution.” on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 4% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 1% and said “This is dumb – he’d be better to just assault the prison instead of threatening to. Still, not impossible.” on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 5% and said “If his dark side can’t come up with anything else, it’s conceivable it could go with this.” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
• Grognor estimated 2% and said “agree with Alsadius” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% on 2012-03-25
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2012-03-27
• Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2012-03-28.
• gwern said “ehh.. he does threaten it, but it’s not actually part of the solution. wrong?” on 2012-03-28
• Grognor said “if he didn’t do it, dumbledore wouldn’t have backed down. I think that suffices for a Right. what about other people though” on 2012-03-28
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban” on 2012-04-09