HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “don’t ask me how this would convince Lucius to drop the charges or the Wizengamot not to convict, I didn’t make it…on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 0% and said “It slipping out is conceivable, but it’s not actually a solution, and it’s expensive. This will not imaginably be used intentionally by someone as intelligent as Harry. on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 0% and said “WHY? That’s just a really, really dumb move.on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “0.0005%on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • Porejide estimated 0% on 2012-03-24
  • RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
  • lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 2% on 2012-03-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape” on 2012-04-09

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