HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel)

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “how would he prove it to the mob’s satisfaction?” on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63i8” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 0% and said “No. Harry likes Quirrel too much. Does he even know that he’s Voldemort yet?” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “0.01%” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• Grognor estimated 4% on 2012-03-23
• Sniffnoy estimated 1% on 2012-03-24
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel)” on 2012-04-09