HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “again, way too crude and unlikely to win any substantive victoryon 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 10% and said “Flashy but unlikely, too much revealed just from this one action (breaking out Bella, non-animal Patronus, etc)on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-03-25
  • lavalamp estimated 13% on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 2% and said ““involve” is broad — still, that would leak too much information w.r.t. bella’s escape.on 2012-03-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors” on 2012-04-09

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