HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 6% on 2012-03-23
• gwern on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “on the plus side, if he dueled lucius and won, eliezer could write another delicious chapter on the will to kill” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 3% on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 3% and said “I decompose this into a 10% chance that it’s part of the legal code and a 30% chance that the best solution Harry can come up with is to challenge Lucius to trial by combat. ” on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 5% and said “I thought he’d be smart enough to not ask for a duel, especially after the Incident with the Remembrall?” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 4% on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• Porejide estimated 4% on 2012-03-24
• quicklystarfish estimated 1% on 2012-03-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2012-03-25
• RobertLumley estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2012-03-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.