HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 6% on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “on the plus side, if he dueled lucius and won, eliezer could write another delicious chapter on the will to killon 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 3% on 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 3% and said “I decompose this into a 10% chance that it’s part of the legal code and a 30% chance that the best solution Harry can come up with is to challenge Lucius to trial by combat. on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 5% and said “I thought he’d be smart enough to not ask for a duel, especially after the Incident with the Remembrall?on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 4% on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
  • Porejide estimated 4% on 2012-03-24
  • quicklystarfish estimated 1% on 2012-03-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2012-03-25
  • RobertLumley estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
  • lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 2% on 2012-03-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat” on 2012-04-09

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