HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “I don’t think Quirrel, much less Bellatrix, is even reachable by Harry at this point even with the timeturner” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 2% on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2012-03-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime” on 2012-04-09