HP MoR: Priori Incantatum

Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

  • gryffinp estimated 78% on 2012-03-23
  • gryffinp said “""It is questionable," the boy said, “to put it mildly, whether Hermione Granger actually cast that Blood-Cooling Charm.”I mean come on it’s right there. See also CH. 13 and CH. 26on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 15% and said “Quirrellmort isn’t stupid. on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 3% and said “Actually… no reason in particular to favour this hypothesis.on 2012-03-23
  • gryffinp said “I think you’re premature in assuming that Quirrelmort is behind this.on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “what exactly is this prediction?on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav said “’Harry’s solution will involve using Prior Incantatem on Hermione’s wand, and it will word (ie, no Blood-Cooling charm).’on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 4% and said “Too obvious, and IIRC we don’t actually know of a deliberate way to see further than the last spell a wand cast.on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “indeed. what, quirrel won’t remember to grab hermione’s wand and cast a chilling? actually, wouldn’t someone’s wand have to have been used in order to show up at st mungo’s with an appropriately injured draco…? on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 5% and said “would violate the idiot ball ruleon 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 1% and said “25% that it will be tried, 1% chance that a negative result will convince anyone of anything(since it only shows one spell, a negative result is meaningless)on 2012-03-24
  • lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
  • HonoreDB  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
  • gryffinp changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Priori Incantatum” on 2012-04-09

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