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Foreign military intervention in Mali

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

  • Leo estimated 10% on 2012-03-26
  • torekp estimated 8% on 2012-04-01
  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-03
  • Leo estimated 20% on 2012-04-24
  • gwern said “2012 in Mali has been confusing, but I don’t think there’s anything that counts for this prediction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Mali#2000s marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
  • Leo said “Yep, French air strikes started Jan 11, 2013. Bit late to the party. Thanks. http://bit.ly/11taie9” on 2013-01-13