SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• RandomThinker estimated 30% on 2012-03-29
• mat33 estimated 20% on 2012-04-01
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-03
• gwern said “irony – the mandate was the part Roberts spared most! marking wrong” on 2012-08-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.