Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr)

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-03-31
• RandomThinker said “It’s been falling for a while (good news), but can it last?” on 2012-03-31
• mhaigh estimated 75% on 2012-03-31
• Ben Doherty estimated 50% on 2012-04-01
• torekp estimated 50% on 2012-04-01
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-03
• RandomThinker said “2013 numbers are still not out yet. But 2012 rate went up vs. 2011.” on 2014-07-09
• kuudes said “http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2013/tables/table_3_january_to_june_2012-2013_percent_change_for_consecutive_years.xls 2013/2012 -6.9%” on 2014-12-01
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-01.
• RandomThinker said “Looks like I might have been a little early https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/u-s-cities-experienced-another-big-rise-in-murder-in-2016/” on 2017-01-09
• RandomThinker said “Instead of “has bottomed” should have been “is bottoming”” on 2017-01-09