Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 40% on 2012-04-01
• mat33 estimated 20% on 2012-04-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-04-01
• quicklystarfish estimated 15% and said “Even with Apple’s finances, I don’t see how this could be worth it to them. They’d need to do something dramatic which might damage Twitter’s popularity. Twitter could probably find a less risky purchaser if necessary.” on 2012-04-01
• JeffreyTse estimated 10% on 2012-04-02
• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-03
• gwern said “http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/28/technology/apple-is-said-to-discuss-an-investment-in-twitter.html should we judge this as right for any stake less than 50%?” on 2012-07-28
• RandomThinker said “@gwern, it has to be > 50% the way I phrased the prediction. But it gives me an idea for future predictions to be a little more flexible as to “buy” ” on 2012-07-28
• RandomThinker said “@gwern for public companies, taking more than a x% stake is probably already big news and has to be reported so maybe that can be future type of acquisition prediction (not sure about x% exactly have to look it up, but something on the order of 1%)” on 2012-07-28
• aelangovan estimated 5% on 2012-09-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-11-25
• RandomThinker said “Well they bought a twitter analytics company, topsy. http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/2/5167906/apple-buys-topsy-twitter-analytics-search-engine” on 2013-12-03
• CarlShulman estimated 1% on 2013-12-08
• Michael Dickens estimated 2% on 2013-12-19
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.