Not including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales – Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units).

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2012-04-01
• RandomThinker changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-01” on 2012-04-01
• RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2012-04-01
• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-04-03
• RandomThinker said “Kind of surprised. First day sales of Diablo 3 was 3.5 million. Didn’t think Diablo was that much more popular than Starcraft. http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/press/pressreleases.html?id=5967868” on 2012-06-05
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-05.