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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words.

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.

  • mat33 estimated 66% on 2012-04-01
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “what is this I don’t even” on 2012-04-02
  • mat33 said ““what is this I don’t even” …about? ;)1. Harry’s complicated relations with the death.2. Harry’s ambitions, talents, capabilities, etc.3. Death’s part in evolution.” on 2012-04-03
  • Anubhav said “1. To invoke the hive-mind representing chaos.2. Invoking the feeling of chaos.3. Without order.4. The Nezperdian hive-mind of chaos. Zalgo.5. He who Waits Behind The Wall.6. ZALGO!7. The entire room is filled with Zalgo.” on 2012-04-03
  • mat33 said “Most predictions are about the possibilities, stated in HPMoR explicitly, right. Nevertheless, I see no problem with somewhat less obvious… developments.” on 2012-04-03
  • Anubhav said “Neither do I. 1. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6157 2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6074 3. http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5mnv” on 2012-04-03
  • mat33 said “1. Just another hack of predictionbook.com rating :)2. anime? Does LW like anime?” on 2012-04-03
  • ArisKatsaris said “Do you actually think that “a Creator of the Words” actually means something, so that this prediction is remotely meaningful, one way or another?” on 2012-04-03
  • mat33 said “VR no worse, than “reality” of our world? It may take us a century or two to achieve. And our “emulations” would feel about as real as our lifes.” on 2012-04-03
  • gwern said “vague. to the extent it is meaningful, I don’t see Eliezer having harry turn down ultimate power unless it’s to hand it over to someone more fit for it” on 2012-04-03
  • mat33 said ““urn down ultimate power” – But it isn’t. An access to this “power” would be (sooner or later) more or less free to most of Supercivilization’s citisents. ” on 2012-04-03
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2012-04-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Main probability mass from the vagueness allowing it to apply to a variety of different things. ” on 2012-04-04
  • Anubhav said “Everything else notwithstanding, I’m marking this wrong if a ‘Creator of Words’ isn’t mentioned by ch 120. ” on 2012-04-04
  • Grognor estimated 1% and said “I want to give this a 0% because my model of Eliezer (nay, of REALITY) simply does not allow this to happen, but some weird gut feeling tells me that would be a bad idea” on 2012-04-05
  • mail2345 estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
  • LauralH estimated 1% and said “no way will harry “understand” that death has a place, period.” on 2012-04-11
  • ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-03-24
  • Thelas estimated 1% and said “Most of probability comes from from vagueness.” on 2013-03-26
  • Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-23.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2013-06-24.
  • JoshuaZ said “Hasn’t yet reached chapter 120 so instead of marking wrong, the deadline should be extended. ” on 2013-06-24
  • jtc510 estimated 0% and said “NO!! Death is bad! EY knows death sucks. Harry knows death sucks. He is NOT gonna want to die, and he would definitely create life if possible. ” on 2013-06-27
  • mat33 changed the deadline from “on 2013-05-06” on 2013-07-01
  • David   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-23.