HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2012-04-04
• gwern said “note: this will be judged to exclude epilogues, omakes, ‘aftermaths’, sequels, etc. the story refers to Harry’s main arc.” on 2012-04-04
• Sarokrae estimated 95% on 2012-04-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's first year of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
• Isaac said “what if it continues into the summer break?” on 2012-04-05
• spqr0a1 estimated 80% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 40% and said “I think it will end between first and second year.” on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 95% and said “I’m assuming “continues into the summer break” also counts.” on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 90% on 2012-04-11
• Ken estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
• Ami estimated 90% and said “Before the second year starts” on 2012-04-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “It’s well into the spring now and it seems like the main plot is just getting started.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 80% and said “Before start of second year.” on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 0% on 2012-05-13
• ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2013-10-29
• Vulture estimated 95% on 2014-02-04
• Calien estimated 95% on 2014-09-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.