HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-04
• ArisKatsaris said “What are you doing, gwern? You should be assigning greater probability to each successive year, given how you phrased the predictions.” on 2012-04-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's second year of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
• Isaac estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 30% on 2012-05-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.