HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2012-04-04
• gwern on 2012-04-04
• gwern said “see caveat about judging in first prediction” on 2012-04-04
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 3% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “EY seems decent at having time pass offscreen without jarring time skips, avoiding the “something happens every day and in-universe time slows to a crawl” problem.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 15% on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 20% on 2012-05-13
• jesyspa estimated 30% and said “Realised my probabilities weren’t adding up.” on 2012-05-13
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.