HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-04
• Isaac estimated 60% on 2012-04-05
• Anubhav estimated 50% and said “Yes, my predictions add up to more than 100%. It makes sense in context.” on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “My predictions add up to more than 100% because of the chance some of the options are the same person. On further reflection, other shenanigans are also possible.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-30.