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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-04
  • Isaac estimated 60% on 2012-04-05
  • Anubhav estimated 50% and said “Yes, my predictions add up to more than 100%. It makes sense in context.on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “My predictions add up to more than 100% because of the chance some of the options are the same person. On further reflection, other shenanigans are also possible.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-30.

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