HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-04
• gwern changed their prediction from “_HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves” on 2012-04-04
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern estimated 9% on 2015-01-01
• lavalamp   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-02.