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HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-04
  • gwern changed their prediction from “_HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves” on 2012-04-04
  • lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • gwern estimated 9% on 2015-01-01
  • lavalamp   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-02.

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