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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.)

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-04
  • Sarokrae estimated 35% on 2012-04-05
  • Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 55% and said “The more this idea floats around, the higher the chance of EY saying, “Good idea!” and running with it.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • Viliam1234 estimated 20% on 2013-03-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-03-18
  • ygert estimated 20% and said “There is a higher chance of this being pointed out in Harry’s thoughts when he hears about the Imperius curse than of actually being shown or mentioned as happening. The chance of the first? ~50%, but the prediction is about the second.on 2013-03-18
  • nigr estimated 50% and said “hmmon 2013-08-15
  • qznc estimated 10% on 2014-07-14
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.

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