PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern said “a very specific outcomeon 2012-04-05
  • spqr0a1 estimated 5% on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 20% on 2012-04-10
  • lavalamp said “It may not be possible or necessary, or Harry may not succeed.on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “Seems too easy. I expect there to be some inhibiting factor.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-11-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 31% on 2012-11-27
  • ygert estimated 70% on 2012-12-16
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.