HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
- gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
- Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-04-06
- lavalamp estimated 15% on 2012-04-10
- Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
- qznc estimated 5% on 2014-07-14
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- gwern estimated 25% and said “Azkaban still hasn’t come up, like, at all…” on 2015-01-01
- PlacidPlatypus judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.