HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-05
• gwern on 2012-04-05
• gwern said “note on judging: this is about true loyalties, not being a double agent etc.” on 2012-04-05
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 10% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 80% and said “This includes being an evil free agent, not just working for Voldemort. Also, are we counting if he is evil for a while, then switches again?” on 2012-04-19
• gwern said “yes to both” on 2012-04-19
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side/working for Voldemort” on 2012-04-19
• Mathir25 estimated 27% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 18% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 60% on 2012-04-23
• HonoreDB said “Not predicting on this one because I think Snape’s currently a morally ambiguous free agent.” on 2012-04-23
• Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-04-29
• Flailingjunk estimated 90% on 2013-07-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Reducing probability based on limited amount of time for this to happen. ” on 2013-07-05
• Benja estimated 30% on 2013-07-06
• 75th estimated 5% and said “I would have rated this higher before the recent round of updates, but given Snape’s line about “revenge”, I no longer think this is plausible.” on 2013-07-13
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-13.