HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
- gwern estimated 65% on 2012-04-05
- gwern on 2012-04-05
- gwern said “as of ch83” on 2012-04-05
- gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: the Master Wand is already in the possession of a character” on 2012-04-05
- ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-04-09
- lavalamp estimated 80% on 2012-04-10
- lavalamp estimated 90% on 2012-04-10
- Anubhav estimated 98% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 85% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 95% on 2012-04-20
- 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
- 75th judged this prediction right on 2015-03-12.