HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-04-05
• gwern said “as of ch83” on 2012-04-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: the Master Wand is already in the possession of a character” on 2012-04-05
• ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 80% on 2012-04-10
• lavalamp estimated 90% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 98% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 85% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 95% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-12.