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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern said “as of ch83on 2012-04-05
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: the Master Wand is already in the possession of a character” on 2012-04-05
  • ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 80% on 2012-04-10
  • lavalamp estimated 90% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 98% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 85% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 95% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-12.