HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
• gwern on 2012-04-05
• gwern said “it would explain how he can be so powerful yet so ennervated” on 2012-04-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Master Wand as of chapter 83” on 2012-04-05
• ahartell estimated 5% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 24% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
• gwern estimated 30% and said “unfortunately, it wouldn’t explain the wandless magic we see him do.” on 2015-01-01
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.