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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern said “it would explain how he can be so powerful yet so ennervatedon 2012-04-05
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Master Wand as of chapter 83” on 2012-04-05
  • ahartell estimated 5% on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 24% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “unfortunately, it wouldn’t explain the wandless magic we see him do.on 2015-01-01
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.