HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
• ArisKatsaris estimated 95% and said “You mean the Elder Wand, I assume?” on 2012-04-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Master Wand as of chapter 83” on 2012-04-05
• ahartell estimated 95% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 90% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 95% on 2012-04-10
• PotatoDumplings estimated 80% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% on 2012-04-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 90% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 90% on 2012-04-23
• Flailingjunk estimated 90% on 2012-04-23
• HonoreDB estimated 100% and said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/797/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/4q99” on 2012-04-23
• 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-12.