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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern said “seems pretty ordinary so far… I think the diary’s sole purpose was to get the godric stuff inon 2012-04-05
  • lavalamp estimated 8% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 25% and said “It seems more likely that it was just a reference to the canon diary without being the same thing.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.