HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
- gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
- gwern said “seems pretty ordinary so far… I think the diary’s sole purpose was to get the godric stuff in” on 2012-04-05
- lavalamp estimated 8% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 25% and said “It seems more likely that it was just a reference to the canon diary without being the same thing.” on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
- 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- 75th judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.
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