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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern on 2012-04-05
  • lavalamp estimated 6% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 1% on 2013-07-13
  • 75th said “I am itching to judge this Wrong, but I know this will get even more complaints than the other judgments I’m making today.” on 2015-03-03
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.