HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 6% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 1% on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• 75th said “I am itching to judge this Wrong, but I know this will get even more complaints than the other judgments I’m making today.” on 2015-03-03
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.