HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
• gwern on 2012-04-05
• Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
• ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
• kpreid estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 75% on 2012-04-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 60% on 2012-04-23
• 75th estimated 15% on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 5% and said “Meh, 15% is too high.” on 2013-07-13
• Flailingjunk estimated 5% on 2013-08-13
• ygert estimated 2% on 2013-08-13
• nigr estimated 10% and said “no reason” on 2013-08-15
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.