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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
  • Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
  • ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
  • kpreid estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 75% on 2012-04-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
  • Flailingjunk estimated 60% on 2012-04-23
  • 75th estimated 15% on 2013-07-13
  • 75th estimated 5% and said “Meh, 15% is too high.on 2013-07-13
  • Flailingjunk estimated 5% on 2013-08-13
  • ygert estimated 2% on 2013-08-13
  • nigr estimated 10% and said “no reasonon 2013-08-15
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.