HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
- gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
- Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-04-05
- ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
- lavalamp estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
- kpreid estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 75% on 2012-04-19
- JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
- Flailingjunk estimated 60% on 2012-04-23
- 75th estimated 15% on 2013-07-13
- 75th estimated 5% and said “Meh, 15% is too high.” on 2013-07-13
- Flailingjunk estimated 5% on 2013-08-13
- ygert estimated 2% on 2013-08-13
- nigr estimated 10% and said “no reason” on 2013-08-15
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- 75th judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.